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Investing FundamentalsChapter 4 — Build a Portfolio

4-1 What Is a Portfolio?

A page moving from choosing products one by one to thinking in terms of overall allocation

The chapters so far covered what kind of product equities and funds are and what movement and return they carry. Next comes how to combine them to suit your own purpose. With a portfolio, what matters is less guessing the correct weights and more deciding the overall allocation while checking how much movement can I actually keep holding through.

What you'll learn
  • A portfolio is about overall allocation, not picking products in isolation.
  • Holding the same products, different weights change how your whole portfolio moves.
  • When deciding weights, look not only at expected return but at how much movement you can live with.
  • Age is one clue, but allocation changes with purpose, horizon, and how you personally feel about movement.

1. Look at overall allocation, not a list of products

Looking at products one by one pulls your attention towards "does this product look good?". That question is necessary, but on its own it tends to skip is this a way of holding that suits me. Even if you understand how equities and funds behave, the weights you hold them at change how your whole portfolio moves quite considerably.

Picking products and designing the whole are different questions
Once you understand how equities and funds behave, work out an overall mix that matches the movement you can tolerate.
Choosing product by productUS equity fundHigh-dividend ETFPopular theme fundThe fund everyone mentionsDo theholdings overlap?The tilt is hard to noticeSwitchthe lensDesigning the wholeEquities50%Bonds25%Deposits25%OverallbalanceBuilt from roles and weights

2. When deciding weights, start from the movement you can tolerate

The first thing to think about in a portfolio is not the size of the expected return. What to put first is how much movement can I absorb?. Risk here, as Chapter 1 set out, is the size of the price movement. It is not only risk as a number — what matters is how you actually feel when your assets swing sharply.

If you feel I could keep holding through a swing of around 30%, a design with a higher weight in equities or individual shares becomes easier to take. If instead you feel I would rather not be on edge over large moves, building around lower-movement products such as bonds and deposits is easier to sustain.

Move the equity weight and watch risk and return change
Move the slider to see how the one-year range on ¥1,000,000 changes.
Asset allocation
DefensiveGrowth
Deposits 12%
Bonds 38%
Equities 50%
Range after one year on ¥1,000,000
¥1,000,000 start
¥500k¥1,000k¥1,500k
Downside
954,656
Expected
1,046,640
Upside
1,138,624

An annual guide. Conceptual values using 18% equity risk, 5% bond risk, and zero correlation; actual products, periods, and correlations will change these.

3. The ideal allocation is not set by age alone

You often see "you can be aggressive while young" and "you should be defensive as you get older". These are useful as a starting handle, but they are not simple rules to apply as they are. In practice, the allocation that fits changes with your purpose, your horizon, and how much movement you can keep holding through.

Age alone does not determine a portfolio
Age is only one input; the weights change with your purpose and the movement you can tolerate. Circle size represents the size of each allocation.
Investor A (55)Has spare money separate from retirement savingsWants to grow money not needed for a long time (15+ years)Risk tolerance: HigherEquities45%Deposits20%REIT15%10%Bonds10%CommoditiesInvestor B (38)Preparing school fees over five yearsWants to protect money needed soon (about 5 years)Risk tolerance: LowerDeposits45%Bonds25%Equities15%10%REIT5%CommoditiesInvestor C (25)Single, salariedWants long-term growth but dislikes large falls (20+ years)Risk tolerance: MediumEquities30%Deposits25%Bonds20%REIT15%Commodities10%

Investor A is 55, but wants to run spare money for a long time and can accept movement, so the equity weight is higher. Investor B is 38, yet weights defence heavily because the money is needed soon. Investor C is 25, but being young does not automatically mean high risk — the balance reflects how they feel about movement.

What to take from this is not "whose allocation is correct". When age, purpose, and risk tolerance differ, the reasonable weights differ too. Which is precisely why, rather than copying someone else's weights, it matters to be able to explain in words how much movement can I tolerate and why did I choose this allocation.

So a portfolio is something you look at as an overall allocation rather than a list of products. Next, we work through the three axes to check when thinking about diversification.

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